I got to hang out with Joe Trippi yesterday. Here are three miscellaneous snippets:

Waiting for Hawaii. Hawaii, which went for Gore by 20 points, is now in play. Trippi’s latest count of electoral votes puts the two candidates even…which means that the deciding votes may come from an archipelago where the polls don’t close until 2pm on Wednesday, East Coast time.*

Both sides think they’re going to lose. Apparently (= borderline rumor ahead), the mood on both campaign planes is dismal. Both sides think they’re going to lose.

Tracking polls soften the blow. Tracking polls average results over three days. I.e., On Friday you see the average of W-T-F, and on Saturday you see the average of T-F-S. That means that if a small gap opens on Friday, you’re likely to see a substantially larger one one on Saturday. This is bad news for Kerry if you watch Zogby but good news if you watch the Washington Post. (Zogby is good news for Nader, who has gained about 40% in the past 12 days, up to 1.1. On the other hand, if you’re Libertarian, Constitution Party, Green, Other or Undecided, Zogby says you’re screwed.)

——
*Joho guarantees that all its math is wrong.

Update: Zogby now has Kerry cutting Bush’s lead to 1 point. By the logic of tracking polls, we should expect a further gain by Kerry tomorrow. (Fingers crossed, knocking wood, sacrificing small woodland mammals in particularly gruesome ways.)

Categories: Uncategorized dw