Blog electoral predictions – and the eve of the end of days
I woke up this morning imagining it’s election night. As soon as polls have closed in each state, the networks are busy projecting the results based on their exit polls. “With 2% of the vote in, ABC is calling Pennsylvania for Kerry, 52% to 48%.” You know, that type of thing. But as the night wears on, the networks have to eat their predictions with an unusual frequency. “We’ve got a change. With 35% of precincts reporting, we are now moving Pennsylvania into the Republican camp, 53% for Bush, 46% for Kerry, and 2% for Nader.” One after another, states are flipped.
And then the networks begin to notice that some of the flips occurred where the electronic voting machines were doing the tabulation.
The Democrats, no longer shy about pursuing electoral matters vigorously through the courts, demand recounts wherever e-voting was used. The most basic pillar of democracy — that the electoral process is honest — has been toppled. Three months later, the matter is still in the courts and the people are in the streets.
Now, onto something more fun. Mathew Gross, the former lead Dean blogger, has asked bloggers to take a guess, before the 2nd debate, at what the final electoral tally will be. I ran historic and current polling data at the precinct level through my simulation software. Then I ignored the results and took the following wild-ass guess:
Popular vote*:
Bush: 64.3%
Kerry: 51.8%
Nader: 1.1%*
Electoral vote:
Bush: 275
Kerry: 262
Nader: 0
*Numbers do not add up to 100% because of over-enthusiastic e-voting machines.
Categories: Uncategorized dw
Oh please. Have you moticed that there are now more people registered to vote in Columbus, Ohio than actually live there? While you fret about imagined fraud, the Democrats carry on the real thing – and you don’t care. Why? Apparently, the ends justify the means in your world…
With e-voting machines and no paper trail, the mere existence of a gap between exit poll and outcome will be enough to fuel distrust of the process. Even before the election is held, it seems that you, James, have already lost faith in our ability to run a fair election. Sounds like my prediction may be distressingly accurate. I sure hope I’m wrong.
What I’m pointing out is that you worry about a potential problem, and assume that it’ll be backed by those nasty Republicans. You don’t worry at all about the actual fraud being perpretrated right now.
Sounds like the Republican spin machine is worried about Ohio. Have they started recruiting the brownshirts who wil go in and disrupt the recount they intend to demand?
James, I don’t worry about it because I don’t know about it. Could you point me to a source so I can learn about it? Thx.
BTW, do you know about the Dems’ complaint about the over-strict enforcement of the registration requirements in OH (here and here)? Fair and balanced!
But, yes, I do believe that the Reps are more prone to lies and dirty tricks in this campaign. I’m aware that this belief is reinforced by my partisanship, and I don’t know that there can be much of a fruitful discussion about it. It’s hard to quantify.
Yup, with both sides already thinking OH has been fixed, it’s hard to see how we’re going to avoid rioting in the streets.
I believe Karl Rove is sitting on a October suprise. Whas Kerry’s divorce messy? Or could it be proof of Kerry in Paris with the Viet cong?
Please David!!! I am from Chicago where Democrats get elected by the dead. Big city Democratic machines are easily the most corrupt in terms of voter fraud, or possibly New Jersey.
Yes, we are worried about Ohio — not just because the number of registrations exceeds citizens, but because the absentee ballot conveniently resembles the infamous butterfuly ballot of Florida. Kerry is lined up just fine, but if you want to vote for Bush, you better know your ballot well! It’s distressing to find that anyone can go to the polls in some states, look at the posted lists of registered voters, and vote with someone else’s name because there is no need for ID. America’s election system is turning into a sick joke. No one will feel confident that Kerry was elected fair and square, and he will have a very rough four years. That is my prediction.