Terrific article by James Fallows in this month’s Atlantic Monthly (not available online) about how W and Kerry will do in their debates. He’s looked at many hours of their previous debates and discovers that W was quite skilled and articulate (well, on message anyway) in the gubernatorial debates, much more so than in the presidential debates. He expects Kerry to surprise people, and not just because he was captain of the debate team at Yale…not necessarily a plus, when you come right down to it. He says that not only is Kerry intellectually nimble, but he comes across as strong and caring. Should be fun (in a terrifying way).

So, it seems obvious that W is going to push on the “flip-flop” theme the Republicans have been marketing relentlessly, while W is going to present himself as a “decisive” leader, a man of clear purpose. Imagine that W says something like:

Well, Terry, it really comes down to leadership. My style of leadership is to set a goal, hold firm to our values, and move ahead towards that goal. Maybe that’s too simple for some people. They’d like to debate things forever. But we’re in a war, and we can’t afford that. Leadership means seeing what needs to be done — whether it’s to fight terrorism or to educate our children or restore our economy — and then you do it, no matter what the flip-floppers and second-guessers say. Now, that’s different than Senator Kerry’s style of leadership. His seems to be charge down one road, and then turn around and charge in the opposite direction. You just don’t get anywhere like that. That’s what he did on the War in Iraq which he voted for and now is kinda sorta against, voting against the money to support our troops. And he supported the No Child Left Behind and now he’s kinda sorta against it. In 1991, he supported most-favored trade status for China. Now he’s criticizing my administration for doing that. He voted for the Patriot Act, for which I applaud him, but now he’s kinda sorta against it. Ethanol, NAFTA, Cuba, Affirmative Action…he’s been up and down each of those roads. I guess that’s one style of leadership, but I think Americans will prefer mine.

So, how should Kerry reply? Here’s my attempt:

Let me address this issue of flip-flopping that the Republicans have spent $__million marketing to the American people. I have spent my life in public service, first as a volunteer in the Vietnam War, then as a county prosecutor, as Lieutentant Governor in 1982, and then as a Senator since 1984. I know that you, George, would like to believe that life is simple. But when you’ve been in a position of responsibility for as long as I have, you learn that while you have to hold to your values and make the hard decisions, life doesn’t really always boil down to guys in white hats versus guys in black hats. Sometimes over the course of years, situations change. And, if we’re able to, we learn. We change. So, yes, while my values have remained unchanged, values for which I’ve put my life on the line, my positions have evolved over the course of my life. And I’m proud of that. Otherwise, it’d mean I’m incapable of learning.

But, if I may, let me address some specifics. Yes, I voted to authorize you to go to war with Iraq. But as I said at the time and as you well know, that was because you promised me that you wouldn’t use that authorization unless we had the participation of our partners…and I don’t mean the 35 people from the Philippines. I stayed steady, but you broke your word, you flip-flopped on the truth. Yes, I supported No Child Left Behind, but you didn’t fund it. You broke your word and flip-flopped on the truth. You campaigned saying you supported a patient bill of rights, but it turns out that you were flipflopping the truth. So, I will stack my lifetime of service, with its history of learning and growth and, yes, some mistakes, against your four years of flipflopping the truth any day.

Now, briefly…

Terry: Very briefly, Senator…

On the issue of leadership, let me say that being strong isn’t enough. You can be a strong leader who drives your country into unnecessary wars. I am a leader who listens, a leader who gets the facts first, a leader who builds true partnerships across the aisles and across the oceans, and a leader who is willing to lay down his life in service of his country. Under a Kerry administration, America will once again lead not just by being the mightiest country, but also by restoring the respect this administration has squandered — respect as the greatest hope of the world.

We ought to set up a wiki where we can write the debates together — propose questions and predict/suggest the answers…

Joshua Micah Marshall‘s excellent article in The Atlantic on the different foreign policy worldviews of W and Kerry is on line. A snippet:

Kerry’s advisers focus less exclusively on nation-states like those Bush identified in his infamous “Axis of Evil” speech and more on the host of diffuse dangers that have arisen in the wake of globalization: destabilization, arms smuggling, and terrorism.

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