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Odlyzko on Broadband Adoption

Andrew Odlyzko sent the following to the attendees of a small conference I was at recently:

U.S. Broadband Lines U.S. Cell Phones
Dec 1999 2.8 M Dec 1989 3.5 M
Dec 2000 7.1 Dec 1990 5.3
Dec 2001 12.8 Dec 1991 7.6
Dec 2002 20.0 (est.) Dec 1992 11.0
&nbsp Dec 1993 16.0
  Dec 1994 24.1
Broadband data for 1999-2001 from FCC statistics, covering both business and residential connections, with broadband defined as anything with more than 200 Kbps in at least one direction, cell phone data from CTIA

Thus broadband growth in three years equals cell phone growth over 5 years. Hence even though cell phones beat broadband connections by almost exactly a 10:1 margin as of Dec. 2001, they spread more slowly.

These figures come from an article called “The Many Paradoxes of Broadband.”

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